“I think it's true everywhere, but data shows it's particularly true in emerging markets, which is that the persistence of risk is generally higher than the persistence of return.” – Howie Schwab
Investors in consumer stocks have been preparing for a shift in spending away from durables (such as washing machines and furniture) and into services (such as restaurants and hotels) for over a year. Relative to historic growth rates, consumer spending on durable goods accelerated well above trend during the pandemic driven by stimulus and a lack of other outlets for spending. Spending on services, while improved from 2020 lows, has yet to fully recover to the prior growth trend established after the Great Financial Crisis.
Featured Commentary
Driehaus Portfolio Manager Howie Schwab joins 'Outlier Academy' podcast to discuss emerging markets and The Great Pendulum Shift
By Howie Schwab
“I think it's true everywhere, but data shows it's particularly true in emerging markets, which is that the persistence of risk is generally higher than the persistence of return.” – Howie Schwab
Durables Versus Services Spending
By Michael Buck
Investors in consumer stocks have been preparing for a shift in spending away from durables (such as washing machines and furniture) and into services (such as restaurants and hotels) for over a year. Relative to historic growth rates, consumer spending on durable goods accelerated well above trend during the pandemic driven by stimulus and a lack of other outlets for spending. Spending on services, while improved from 2020 lows, has yet to fully recover to the prior growth trend established after the Great Financial Crisis.